Originally published at mrnasdog.com/analysis/why-did-wld-crash by MrNasDog.
(This is our own view, not financial advice. We could be wrong.)
Worldcoin, now called World, is one of the most famous crypto projects. Millions of people have signed up, and it is backed by big names. Yet its coin, WLD, is down about 95% from its high in 2024. In our view, the reason is not a lack of users. It is that almost nobody needs to buy the coin, while new coins keep arriving every day.
1. Nobody needs to buy WLD
To use World, you download the app and verify that you are a real person. That is free, and you never have to buy WLD to do it. In fact, it works the other way around: World gives free WLD to people who verify. So a new user doesn’t bring new money into the coin. They get coins for free, and many people probably sell them.
Compare that with Solana. To trade a new coin on Solana, you first have to buy SOL. Every new user there is a buyer.
2. New WLD arrives every day
The free coins for users are only part of it. The bigger part, from our research, is that the team and early investors unlock new WLD every single day, and the project’s foundation pays out more. All of this adds about 4% more WLD every three months, and there is no buyback and no burn to take any of it back. So more and more coins meet very few people who need to buy them, and we think that is why the price keeps sliding.
Our WLD page, with where the new coins come from: mrnasdog.com/research/wld
3. The same story in other coins
Worldcoin is not alone. A few other big coins look very similar to us:
- Pi Network pays free PI to people who tap a button in its app, and it is down about 97%.
- Helium pays HNT to people who run a hotspot at home, and it is down about 99%.
- Filecoin pays new FIL to people who store files for it, and it is down more than 99%.
4. What could prove us wrong
These coins can still jump in a hot market. And World has said apps will pay fees in WLD to use its ID system. If that really takes off, people would finally need to buy WLD, and the picture could change a lot. For now, we haven’t seen it at a size that matters.
5. MrNasDog’s Thought
A big user number is not the same as demand for the coin. With Worldcoin, I think users get coins instead of buying them. So before I look at any coin with millions of users, I ask one question: does a user actually have to buy it?
(Again, this is our own view, not financial advice. Please check the numbers yourself before you decide anything.)
Original: https://mrnasdog.com/analysis/why-did-wld-crash · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.