SUI Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

➜ Start with the Sui Network coin page for the short answer (should you buy SUI?) and its price drivers: mrnasdog.com/research/sui

SUI is inflationary on its tradable float. In the 90 days to Oct 22 2026, about 65.71M SUI reached the market: 25.19M paid to stakers from the launch subsidy pot and 40.52M from monthly releases to early contributors, the Sui Foundation community reserve and the Mysten Labs treasury. Only 150,187 SUI left for good through non-refundable storage fees, so net supply grew +1.59%, and we expect about +1.49% over the next 90 days. Sui can never pass 10B SUI, but only 4.12B of those coins are unlocked today.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Sui’s circulating supply grew +1.59% over the last 90 days, and the next 90 days look almost the same at +1.49%. Other trackers show +1.65% for the same stretch, only 0.05 points away from our reading, so there is no conflict to flag and no warning chip on the page. Every coin of that growth was already minted: Sui made all 10B SUI at launch in May 2023 and has no way to mint more. What changes is how many of them are free to trade. In one line, SUI is a fixed-cap coin with a steady unlock drip, not a coin with runaway printing.

Sell pressure: where new SUI comes from

Protocol inflation on Sui is the stake subsidy. When Sui launched, a pot of SUI was set aside to pay stakers on top of the gas fees they earn, and it pays out once per 24-hour epoch. Between Jul 24 and Oct 22 2026 it paid 25.19M SUI. The pot shrinks its payout by 10% every 90 epochs: the amount per day fell from about 282,430 SUI to about 254,187 SUI on Oct 14 2026, and the next cut, to about 228,768 SUI a day, lands around Jan 12 2027. That gives about 22.67M SUI of subsidy in the next 90 days. About 226.7M SUI is still in the pot.

Vesting unlocks come from early contributors, whose SUI is released on the 1st of each month. Releases of about 7.65M on Aug 1, 7.47M on Sep 1 and 7.19M on Oct 1 2026 add up to 22.31M SUI in the window. The next three, on Nov 1 and Dec 1 2026 and Jan 1 2027, add about 20.75M SUI; each one is a little smaller than the last. The Series A and Series B investor rounds finished vesting in May 2026, which is why Sui’s monthly unlock roughly halved from about 52M SUI to about 23M SUI a month after that.

Foundation and Mysten Labs releases add the third piece. Each month the Sui Foundation’s community reserve releases about 4M SUI and the Mysten Labs treasury about 2.07M SUI, so 18.21M SUI in the last 90 days and the same again in the next 90. The Foundation uses this reserve for grants, delegation and ecosystem deals. There is no bankruptcy estate and no court-held pile of SUI waiting to be sold, so the long-term-locked row is zero.

Buy pressure: where new SUI goes

Sui has no classic fee burn. Gas fees for computing are paid to validators and stakers, which keeps those SUI on the market. Storage works differently: when a transaction stores data, the user pays a deposit into the storage fund, and a small part of that deposit can never be refunded. That non-refundable share grew by 150,187 SUI in the last 90 days. Those SUI are gone for good, and at the same pace another 150,187 SUI would go in the next 90 days. Next to 65.71M SUI of new supply, it is small.

The Sui Foundation buys SUI back every day, paid for with the yield on its stablecoin reserves. Across 88 buying days in the window it bought about 705K SUI for about $588K. The Foundation hands those coins back out to network users, validators and partners rather than burning or locking them, so the buyback moves SUI around but removes nothing from the supply. The Foundation does not buy and hold SUI beyond this, and no new long-term lock was announced. About 7.08B SUI is staked, but staked coins count the same way as any other, so staking takes nothing out.

Foundation and overhang

The biggest number on Sui’s supply sheet is what has not been released yet. Of 10B SUI, about 4.12B are unlocked. The Sui Foundation’s published calendar releases about 664.5M SUI more by May 2030, through the stake subsidy and the monthly releases above. A further 5.22B SUI has no release date at all; the Foundation has only said it comes after 2030. That undated block is more than the whole circulating supply today.

We watch these overhangs separately: the stake subsidy pot (about 226.7M SUI, read on-chain every day), the community reserve and Mysten Labs treasury releases (about 6.07M SUI a month, checked at every rebuild), and the undated 5.22B SUI block. The Foundation’s buyback keeps almost no standing balance because it hands its coins back out. If any of these balances falls faster than its calendar between our checks, or the Foundation pays for a deal in locked SUI outside the calendar, that outflow is added to the Foundation row at the next refresh.

How SUI compares to other proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains

Most proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains pay stakers in brand-new coins with no cap, so their supply keeps rising forever. Sui is different by design: all 10B SUI were made at launch, and staking rewards come out of a pre-funded pot that shrinks by 10% every 90 days. That makes Sui’s staking drip smaller each quarter, while an uncapped chain’s issuance only falls as a share of a growing supply.

The catch is the unlock calendar. Like other recent chains with big insider and foundation allocations, Sui’s tradable float grows mainly through scheduled releases, not mining or minting. Ethereum burns part of every fee and Solana burns part of each transaction fee, but Sui returns most fees to stakers and only retires a thin slice through non-refundable storage. So Sui’s supply story is custody versus market float: the cap is fixed and hard, but the float can still grow for years.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Nov 1 2026: the next monthly release, about 13.15M SUI to early contributors, the community reserve and Mysten Labs, plus that month’s stake subsidy.

Dec 1 2026 and Jan 1 2027: two more monthly releases, about 12.97M SUI and 12.84M SUI.

Around Jan 12 2027: the stake subsidy steps down another 10%, to about 228,768 SUI a day.

Any Foundation deal paid in SUI: the Sui Foundation announced a $30M investment in DATA Network on Oct 12 2026 without saying how it pays. If it pays in locked SUI outside the calendar, that would be new supply on top of this ledger.

Any change to the release calendar itself: the Foundation last revised its schedule page on Jul 16 2026 and says the schedule can be adjusted.

Summary

SUI is a fixed-cap coin whose tradable supply still grows about 1.5% every 90 days. The growth comes from a shrinking stake subsidy (25.19M SUI in the last 90 days) and monthly releases to early contributors, the Sui Foundation and Mysten Labs (40.52M SUI), while non-refundable storage fees retire only about 150K SUI. The key risk is the size of what is still locked: 664.5M SUI on the calendar to 2030 and 5.22B SUI with no date. The ceiling is hard at 10B SUI, but only 4.12B of them trade today.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of SUI, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 22 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/sui/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.