STRK Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

This is the long supply read. For the signal, the price drivers and the questions people ask about Starknet, see mrnasdog.com/research/strk.

The MrNasDog Pressure Framework reads Starknet (STRK) as clearly inflationary: +9.47% net over the last 90 days and +8.28% projected for the next 90. Three sources add STRK to the market — 381M STRK of monthly investor and early-contributor unlocks, 300M STRK sent out of a team reserve wallet, and 37.7M STRK newly minted for stakers — while nothing burns or buys STRK back. Our monitor reads +12.73%, a gap of 3.26 percentage points that we trace to how the monitor schedules its float, not to any coins we could find moving.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days from Jul 19 to Oct 17 2026, 718.7M STRK entered the Starknet float and none left it, against 7.59B STRK in circulation: a net change of +9.47%. The next 90 days, to Jan 15 2027, project 628.2M STRK, or +8.28%. The inflation monitor reads +12.73% for its own 90-day window, so the gap is +3.26pp, well above the 0.5pp line, and the page carries a ⚠ monitor gap note: the monitor’s float rises in fixed steps on the 1st and 16th of each month that are larger than any STRK flow we can trace on-chain. The cite-able label for STRK today is inflationary by unlock schedule: an Ethereum Layer 2 token whose float still grows by high single digits every quarter.

Sell pressure: where new STRK comes from

Protocol inflation is 37.7M STRK. Since staking went live, Starknet mints new STRK every hour-long epoch to pay validators and their delegators. The yearly mint follows a minting curve that grows with the square root of the share of STRK staked, with an inflation coefficient of 4%. The STRK token lives on Ethereum, and its total supply there rose from 10.14B on Jul 19 2026 to 10.18B on Oct 17 2026 — exactly 29 mints of 1.3M STRK, each sent across the bridge to Starknet’s reward pool. The staked amount grew from about 1.43B to 1.54B STRK, so the yearly mint rose from about 152M to 158M STRK. We project the same 37.7M STRK for the next 90 days; at today’s stake it would be a little more, about 39.1M.

Vesting unlocks are 381M STRK. The STRK held by investors and early contributors is locked and released on the 15th of each month, up to 127M STRK per month, until Mar 15 2027. Three of those monthly unlocks fell inside the window — Aug 15, Sep 15 and Oct 15 2026 — for 381M STRK. Three more fall in the next 90 days: Nov 15 and Dec 15 2026 and Jan 15 2027, the last day of the window, for another 381M STRK. After the Oct 15 unlock, about 635M STRK is still locked.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 300M STRK. A large team reserve wallet on Ethereum, funded at launch, sent 100M STRK out on Jul 28 2026 and 200M STRK on Sep 10 2026. The coins went through helper wallets and across the bridge to Starknet. Its balance fell from 1.25B to 950M STRK, which matches the two transfers to the coin. Over the last 12 months this wallet released 849.6M STRK in seven moves, at least one every quarter, so we project about 209.5M STRK for the next 90 days. The Starknet docs say coins kept by the Foundation are not counted as circulating until they are granted or handed out, which is why these releases add to the float.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy is zero. Starknet has no bankruptcy estate, no court-held coins and no trustee distribution; the only long lock is the investor and contributor schedule already counted above.

Buy pressure: where new STRK goes

Programmatic buyback is zero. Since the v0.14.0 upgrade, Starknet transaction fees are paid only in STRK, but they go to the network operator to cover its costs, including Ethereum gas. No programme, contract or governance vote uses fees to buy STRK back. A forum post in July 2026 asked to cut the maximum supply, but it drew no vote.

Protocol fee burn is zero. We checked both ways. The burn addresses on Ethereum and on Starknet held the same tiny amounts at both ends of the window, and STRK total supply only went up, by exactly the 37.7M of staking mints. No STRK was destroyed.

Foundation buy is zero. No team or Foundation wallet bought STRK in the window; the reserve wallets only sent coins out.

New long-term lock is zero. Staking is real and growing — about 115M more STRK was staked over the window — but stakers can leave after a 7-day wait and staked STRK still counts as circulating. So staking takes nothing out of the float. What it does is raise the minting, because the yearly mint grows with the staked share.

Foundation and overhang

Four pools of STRK sit outside the float today and could enter it. The first is the investor and early-contributor lock, about 635M STRK after Oct 15 2026, released on a published calendar of up to 127M a month until Mar 15 2027. The second is the team reserve wallet that funds grants and incentives, now 950M STRK; it has no published schedule, but it has released coins every quarter for a year. The third is a team safe holding 1.0B STRK that refilled the reserve wallet with 1.5B STRK on Apr 21 2026 and has not moved since. The fourth is a second team safe with about 83.6M STRK, unchanged at both ends of the window. There is no buyback wallet, because STRK has no buyback.

We read the reserve wallet and both safes on-chain at every rebuild and follow the unlock calendar on the official schedule. If any of these balances falls between rebuilds, the outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks line at the next rebuild.

How STRK compares to other Ethereum Layer 2 tokens

Most Ethereum Layer 2 tokens are governance tokens with a fixed supply: no staking, no mint, and new float only from team and investor unlocks plus treasury spending. STRK has those same two flows — and here they are large, 381M STRK of unlocks and 300M STRK of reserve releases in one quarter — but it also has a third that most rollup tokens lack: a staking mint with no hard cap. The 10B STRK figure is the starting supply, not a ceiling; the supply on Ethereum is already about 10.18B and keeps rising as long as people stake.

That makes STRK look more like a proof-of-stake Layer 1 than a typical rollup token. Chains such as Ethereum pay stakers in new coins too, but they also burn part of every fee, so the burn offsets some of the issuance. Starknet has no fee burn at all: every STRK minted for stakers and every STRK unlocked stays in the market. Compared with staking Layer 1s, STRK’s mint is small — about 1.6% of supply a year — but its unlocks and reserve spending are many times larger than the mint.

The difference will shrink after Mar 15 2027, when the investor and contributor unlocks end. From then on, STRK’s new supply will mostly come from the staking mint and from whatever the reserve wallets choose to release.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Nov 15 2026, Dec 15 2026 and Jan 15 2027: the next three monthly unlocks, up to 127M STRK each for investors and early contributors.

The team reserve wallet: it now holds 950M STRK and released coins every quarter for the past year; a release above about 210M in the window would push the net figure up.

The staking share: more STRK staked means a bigger yearly mint. A proposal posted on Oct 15 2026 suggests changing how rewards are split between STRK and bitcoin stakers; it would change who gets the mint, not how big it is.

The independent Layer 1 poll: a non-binding holder poll opened on Oct 15 2026 on whether to research turning Starknet into its own post-quantum Layer 1. Starknet says STRK stays the token either way, so it moves no supply now, but any later change to staking or fees would.

Summary

Starknet’s STRK supply grew about 9.47% in the last 90 days and is projected to grow about 8.28% in the next 90, because monthly unlocks of up to 127M STRK, releases from a team reserve wallet and a staking mint all add coins while no burn or buyback takes any out. The unlocks end on Mar 15 2027, which removes the largest source of new STRK. The key risk is the team reserve: 950M STRK in one wallet and another 1.08B in two safes, released with no public schedule. STRK has no hard cap — its supply is already above 10B and rises with every staking epoch.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of STRK, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 17 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/strk/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.