Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/pump/inflation by MrNasDog.

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PUMP Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

PUMP supply is growing, and it is set to keep growing a little. Between Jul 25 and Oct 23 2026 the Pump.fun team, early investors and one allocation wallet released 83.38B PUMP into the market, while the Pump.fun buyback bought and burned 20.40B PUMP. Net, the PUMP float grew +13.65% in 90 days. For the next 90 days the scheduled unlocks come to about 22.50B PUMP against a burn of about 17.88B PUMP, so supply should grow only about +1.00%. No new PUMP can ever be minted; the open question is the 364.89B PUMP still held back.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 23 2026, PUMP supply rose by +13.65% of the circulating float of 461.43B PUMP. Other trackers show +15.82% for the same 90 days, a gap of 2.17 points. Both readings count almost the same number of new coins, about 63B PUMP; the trackers simply start from the smaller float of late July, so the same coins look like a bigger share. No warning chip is needed. For the next 90 days we expect +1.00%. The cite-able label: an unlock-heavy token whose revenue burn now almost cancels the monthly unlocks.

Sell pressure: where new PUMP comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. PUMP is a Solana Token-2022 coin, and its mint authority is switched off on-chain, so not a single new PUMP can be created. All 1 trillion PUMP were made at launch in July 2025, and burns have since cut the total to about 826.32B PUMP.

Vesting unlocks are the whole sell side: 83.38B PUMP in the window. The team (20% of the original supply) and existing investors (13%) were locked for one year, until July 2026. Their coins sit in a main custody wallet, which sent 20B PUMP on Sep 8 2026 and 54B PUMP on Sep 13 2026 to the wallets that pay insiders. Across the window those payout wallets sent coins to more than 250 insider wallets, with the biggest round on Sep 14 2026. A separate 30B allocation wallet released 8.13B PUMP on Aug 26 2026, then 625M PUMP on Sep 12 and again on Oct 12 2026, for 9.38B PUMP in the window.

For the next 90 days the published schedule pays insiders about 6.88B PUMP a month, and the allocation wallet adds 625M PUMP a month. Three payments fall in the window, around Nov 12 2026, Dec 12 2026 and Jan 12 2027, for 22.50B PUMP. The insiders’ September payment was much larger than one month, and the main custody wallet made no payment on the Oct 12 date, so the real pace may be slower. The forecast still uses the full schedule until the wallets show otherwise.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0: none of the held-back wallets moved outside the vesting payments above. Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is also 0. Pump.fun faces lawsuits, but no court or estate holds PUMP that could be released.

Buy pressure: where new PUMP goes

The programmatic buyback is the only buyer, and it is a big one. Since Apr 28 2026, half of Pump.fun’s net revenue from the bonding curve, PumpSwap, Terminal and custom pairs automatically buys PUMP on the open market and burns it, under a smart contract locked for one year. Between Jul 25 and Oct 23 2026 that buyback spent $79.25M, about half of the $156.49M of revenue, and destroyed 20.40B PUMP. The buyback wallets keep nothing; each purchase is burned within seconds, and the on-chain total supply falls with it.

The burn is set in dollars, not in coins. At the price on Oct 23 2026, the same $79.25M would burn about 17.88B PUMP in the next 90 days. If revenue grows or the price falls, the PUMP buyback burns more coins; if revenue fades, it burns fewer.

There is no separate protocol fee burn: every burned PUMP comes from the buyback, so it is counted once. Foundation buy is 0. Companies that hold PUMP, like a listed firm that bought 216.8M PUMP in October 2026, buy coins that already circulate, so they take nothing out of the count. New long-term lock is 0: PUMP has no staking lock.

Foundation and overhang

Four wallets hold every PUMP that is not yet counted as circulating, 364.89B PUMP in total, close to 80% of today’s float. The main custody wallet holds 229.26B PUMP; it received the whole supply at launch and pays the team and investors in lumps. Two more wallets hold 80B PUMP and 35B PUMP and have not moved a coin since launch in July 2025. The 30B allocation wallet still holds 20.63B PUMP and pays out 625M a month.

The two insider payout wallets hold another 19.46B PUMP (13.98B and 5.48B). Those coins already count as circulating, so when they are paid out they add nothing new. If any held-back wallet’s balance falls between checks, the outflow enters the PUMP sell pressure at the next check.

How PUMP compares to other launchpad and exchange tokens

PUMP belongs to the group of exchange and launchpad tokens that turn platform revenue into buybacks. Among them, Pump.fun is unusual in two ways. First, it burns what it buys: the PUMP is destroyed, so total supply falls every day. Hyperliquid’s HYPE and several other trading-platform tokens instead buy and hold coins in a fund, which removes them from trading but leaves them in the supply. Second, the PUMP buyback is a fixed 50% of revenue, written into a contract for one year, rather than a decision taken each quarter.

Where PUMP is weaker is the unlock side. A fixed-supply launchpad token with a fully unlocked float only has to beat zero new supply. PUMP still has 364.89B PUMP held back, and the insider schedule runs to mid-2029. That makes PUMP closer to young layer-1 tokens with big vesting programs than to old, fully circulating exchange coins. The difference is that the PUMP burn is large enough to cancel most of the monthly insider drip, which few vesting-heavy tokens can say.

The comparison that matters is mechanism, not price: PUMP has no mint, a hard 1 trillion cap that has already shrunk by about 17%, a revenue burn instead of a fee burn, and a large custody overhang instead of an open market float.

What to watch in the next 90 days

The next scheduled PUMP unlocks fall around Nov 12 2026, Dec 12 2026 and Jan 12 2027, about 7.50B PUMP each, team and investors plus the allocation wallet.

The main custody wallet with 229.26B PUMP: it paid out in big lumps on Jun 25, Sep 8 and Sep 13 2026. Another lump of that size would lift supply far above our forecast; no payment at all would make it smaller.

Pump.fun revenue: new products launched in October 2026, such as perpetual futures trading and an in-house cross-chain bridge, can lift revenue, and half of revenue becomes the PUMP burn. Fee changes that send more money to traders and creators can shrink it.

The end of the one-year buyback lock around Apr 28 2027 lies outside this window, but any early statement about what follows it would change the forecast for 2027.

Summary

PUMP supply grew +13.65% in the 90 days to Oct 23 2026, because the insider lock ended and 83.38B PUMP left the held-back wallets while the revenue buyback burned 20.40B PUMP. For the next 90 days the scheduled unlocks of about 22.50B PUMP meet a burn of about 17.88B PUMP, so supply should grow only about +1.00%. No PUMP can be minted and the 1 trillion cap keeps shrinking. The key risk is the 364.89B PUMP still held back, which pays out in lumps.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of PUMP, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 23 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/pump/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.