Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/pengu/inflation

The Pudgy Penguins coin page has the score, the price drivers and every question answered — mrnasdog.com/research/pengu. Below: supply, line by line.

PENGU Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

PENGU supply is growing, and the reason is the team, not the code. The Pudgy Penguins token can never be minted again, yet the team and company wallets sent 1.17B PENGU out in the last 90 days with nothing on the buy side, so the free supply grew +1.86% against a circulating figure of 62.86B PENGU. The monitor shows +0.01%, because the circulating number it reads has not changed since launch day.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Between Jul 20 and Oct 18 2026 the PENGU ledger reads +1.86% net: 1.17B PENGU of team and company releases against 0 bought back, burned or locked. The monitor reads +0.01% for the same 90 days, a gap of 1.85 percentage points, which is over our 0.5-point line, so the coin page carries a ⚠ monitor-gap note. We walked the gap: the circulating figure the monitor reads has stayed at about 62.86B PENGU every day since Dec 17 2024. It equals the 88.89B launch supply minus the 26.03B team and company share, so it never moved for the 12.17B airdrop burn in Feb 2025 or for any monthly release since the cliff on Dec 17 2025. The chain shows the coins leaving, so our number stays. For the next 90 days we expect about the same, +1.86%. In one line: PENGU is a fixed-supply brand coin that is inflationary on the free float, because insiders are still unlocking.

Sell pressure: where new PENGU comes from

Protocol inflation is 0, and it will stay that way. PENGU is a standard Solana token whose mint authority was set to none, which means no wallet, company or vote can ever create another PENGU. There is no staking reward and no emission schedule.

Vesting unlocks are the whole story: 1.17B PENGU in 90 days. At launch on Dec 16 2024 the team share (17.8%) and the company share (11.48%), 26.03B PENGU together, went into one team wallet. That wallet passed 13.52B to seven grant wallets, and in late January 2026 those split again into many personal wallets. Everything had a one-year cliff, then monthly releases on the 17th until Nov 17 2028. We followed every one of these wallets on-chain. In this window the main team wallet paid out on Aug 17 and Sep 17 2026, about 180M PENGU each time, mostly to one busy wallet that passes the coins on, and seven other team wallets sent out between 17M and 230M each. Together 1,168M PENGU left the team wallets. The calendar would have allowed 2.17B (three releases of 722.96M), so the team is releasing only about half of what it may. The Oct 17 2026 payout had still not left the main wallet on Oct 18.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. PENGU has no separate foundation; the coins the launch wallet and the busy payout wallet hand out are already counted as circulating, so they move between holders without adding supply. The long-term locked or bankruptcy row is 0 too: no estate, trustee or long lock is releasing PENGU.

Buy pressure: where new PENGU goes

Nothing takes PENGU out of the market. There is no programmatic buyback: Igloo, the company behind Pudgy Penguins, said on Oct 6 2026 that it would close its Abstract network and put its effort into Pudgy Penguins and PENGU, but it named no buyback, no size and no wallet, so the row is 0.

The fee burn is 0 because PENGU charges no fees of its own. The one large burn in its history was the 12.17B unclaimed airdrop coins destroyed in Feb 2025, which is why the on-chain supply is 76.72B and not 88.89B. Since then holders burn only a few PENGU at a time; the burn address holds 2.2 PENGU. There was no company buying in the window (the team wallets only sent coins out), and there is no staking or new lock, so the foundation-buy and new-lock rows are both 0. A fund that would hold PENGU has been filed but has not launched, and it would buy coins already in the market.

Foundation and overhang

The overhang is large and sits in plain wallets, not in a lock contract. The team and company wallets still hold 20.30B PENGU: 7.37B in the main team wallet and 12.92B across about 50 others, including a 608M company wallet and many personal wallets that still hold their full grants, such as two of 1.17B each. Only 18.07B is still locked on the calendar, so the wallets are about 2.22B PENGU behind the schedule. That backlog can be released at any time. The launch wallet holds another 5.01B, already counted as circulating. We read every one of these wallets on-chain at each rebuild. If the balance of any team or company wallet falls between our checks, the coins that leave are added to the sell side at the next check.

How PENGU compares to other meme coins

Among meme and brand coins, PENGU sits in the fixed-supply group: like PEPE or BONK, no new coins can be printed, and unlike DOGE, which adds new coins to miners every minute without end. That makes PENGU’s long-run ceiling clear: 88.89B at launch, 76.72B after the airdrop burn, and never more.

What sets PENGU apart is that insiders still hold a large locked share. A coin like PEPE launched with almost everything in the market, so its free supply barely changes. PENGU gave 29.28% to its team and company on a four-year plan, which works more like the insider unlocks of a venture-backed token than a community meme. Until Nov 2028, the main question for PENGU supply is how fast those wallets release, not what the code does.

PENGU also has no burn or buyback to push back. Some meme coins burn part of every trade or run a buyback from a product’s revenue; PENGU does neither, even though Igloo sells toys, games and licences under the Pudgy Penguins brand. Every team release lands on the market with nothing taking coins away.

What to watch in the next 90 days

The late October payout. The Oct 17 2026 release had not left the main team wallet on Oct 18; when it moves, it falls in the next window.

Nov 17 2026 and Dec 17 2026. Two more monthly release dates, each up to 722.96M PENGU on the calendar. If the team starts paying the full amount, or works off part of its 2.22B backlog, the next-90-day number rises toward 2.3% or more.

Abstract closes on Dec 15 2026. The network itself moves no PENGU supply, but Igloo has said PENGU is now its focus, and people who farmed points on Abstract are asking to be paid in still-locked PENGU. Any payment like that would come out of the team and company wallets.

A buyback or burn plan. None exists today. A real one, with a size and a wallet, would be the first thing on the buy side of the PENGU ledger.

Summary

The MrNasDog Pressure Framework reads PENGU at +1.86% net over the last 90 days and +1.86% for the next 90 days: supply growing, projected to keep growing. Pudgy Penguins can never mint another PENGU, but the team and company wallets sent out 1.17B PENGU in 90 days, still hold 20.30B, and nothing buys or burns coins to absorb them. The key risk is the backlog: the wallets are about 2.22B PENGU behind their calendar, so releases could speed up before the schedule ends in Nov 2028.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of PENGU, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 18 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/pengu/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.