Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/ondo/inflation
This is the long supply read. For the signal, the price drivers and the questions people ask about Ondo Finance, see mrnasdog.com/research/ondo.
ONDO Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed last 90D · projected to grow
ONDO supply was flat over the last 90 days and is set to jump in the next 90. Between Jul 25 and Oct 23 2026 no new ONDO was minted and no locked ONDO was released, so the net change was 0.00%. On Jan 18 2027 the yearly vesting cliff releases 1.71B ONDO, which lifts circulating supply by about +35.12% in the next 90 days. ONDO has a stated maximum of 10B, no buyback and no burn, so nothing on the other side of the ledger offsets the unlock.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Ondo Finance’s ONDO token added 0.00% to its circulating supply over the last 90 days, and is projected to add +35.12% over the next 90 days because of the Jan 18 2027 cliff. Other supply trackers read −0.05% for the same past 90 days, a gap of only 0.05 points, so the two readings agree and no warning flag is shown. ONDO is best described as a capped governance token with a once-a-year unlock: calm for eleven months, then a single large step every Jan 18 until Jan 18 2029.
Sell pressure: where new ONDO comes from
Protocol inflation is zero. ONDO pays no staking or block rewards, the token docs state there is no planned inflation, and total supply read exactly 10B ONDO at both ends of the window. The ONDO contract still has a mint function, but only an approved role can call it, and it was not used.
Vesting unlocks are the one real source of new ONDO. When the Ondo DAO lifted the token lock-up on Jan 18 2024, it set a yearly schedule: locked ONDO for ecosystem growth, the core team and early private-sale investors unlocks on each Jan 18 through Jan 18 2029. No cliff fell between Jul 25 and Oct 23 2026, so the last 90 days count 0. The next cliff, on Jan 18 2027, releases about 1,710,223,118 ONDO: roughly 792M for ecosystem growth, 660M for protocol development and the team, and 258M for early investors. The Jan 18 2026 cliff released the same amount, and the market’s circulating count rose by about 1.71B ONDO the next day. After Jan 2027, two more cliffs of the same size remain, on Jan 18 2028 and Jan 18 2029.
Foundation and unscheduled unlocks count 0. The Ondo Foundation’s main wallet sent 150M ONDO on Aug 21 2026 and another 150M ONDO on Sep 23 2026 to a payout wallet, which then paid out about 361M ONDO in 19 transfers of 15M to 26M each. All of these coins came from the part of the Foundation wallet that was already unlocked and already counted as circulating, so they move existing supply rather than add new supply.
Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is zero. No bankruptcy estate holds ONDO. The estate of Ondo’s late founder, which is now in court, holds ONDO that unlocks on the same yearly cliffs, so it is already part of the Jan 18 numbers above and is not counted twice.
Buy pressure: where new ONDO goes
Nothing takes ONDO out of the market today. There is no programmatic buyback: Ondo Finance’s tokenized Treasury, stock and fund products earn fees, but none of that money buys ONDO, and a fee switch for holders has been talked about without ever reaching a vote. There is no fee burn either: total supply stayed at 10B and the dead address held the same 7.59 ONDO at the start and end of the window.
The Ondo Foundation did not buy ONDO back in these 90 days; it only paid coins out. There is no ONDO staking programme and no new long-term lock, and the Ondo DAO’s on-chain votes have been paused since January 2024, so no new lock could be approved soon. All four buy rows read 0 for the last 90 days and the next 90 days.
Foundation and overhang
The Ondo Foundation’s main multisig wallet holds about 5.18B ONDO. The Foundation itself says 4.42B of that is still locked; the other roughly 757M is unlocked and already counted as circulating. That unlocked share is what funds the regular payouts: about 150M ONDO every month or two in 2026. The payout wallet still holds about 36M ONDO.
In total, about 5.13B ONDO is still locked across the whole supply. The Foundation holds 4.42B of it, and about 708M more sits outside the Foundation, held for early investors and team members. We read the Foundation wallet and the payout wallet at every rebuild. If either wallet’s locked balance falls between our checks, or if the circulating count moves before a cliff date, the outflow will enter the Foundation row of the ledger at the next refresh.
How ONDO compares to other real-world-asset and governance tokens
ONDO belongs to the group of capped governance tokens whose supply grows only through vesting, not through emissions. Proof-of-stake Layer 1 coins such as Ethereum or Solana print new coins every day to pay validators, so their supply grows smoothly all year. ONDO prints nothing. Its supply stays still for most of the year and then rises in one step every Jan 18, which makes the timing of its sell pressure very easy to see in advance.
Against other governance tokens that share fees, ONDO sits at the weaker end. Some DeFi tokens use protocol revenue to buy back or burn coins, which offsets part of their unlocks. Ondo Finance’s products have grown fast, with about $4B in assets across its funds and tokenized stocks, but none of that revenue flows to ONDO today. Until a fee switch is approved, the only force on ONDO’s supply is the unlock calendar.
Compared with tokens that unlock monthly, such as many newer Layer 1 and DeFi tokens, ONDO’s yearly cliff is larger but rarer. A monthly unlock spreads the same coins over twelve small steps; ONDO releases about a third of its current float in a single day. That concentrates the risk on one date rather than spreading it.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Jan 18 2027: the yearly cliff releases about 1.71B ONDO to ecosystem growth, the team and early investors. This is the single event that drives the +35.12% forecast.
The Foundation wallet’s locked balance: it should stay at about 4.42B ONDO until the cliff. Any move below that before Jan 18 2027 would be an early release and would be added to the ledger.
A fee switch or buyback vote: Ondo DAO votes have been paused since January 2024. If a vote reopens and routes product fees to buying ONDO, it would add the first buy-side pressure this token has had.
The founder’s estate: court cases over control of Ondo Finance and the late founder’s holdings are still open. A ruling that moves those ONDO coins would not change total supply, but it could change who holds them.
Summary
ONDO, the governance token of Ondo Finance, had a flat supply over the last 90 days (0.00%) and is projected to grow about +35.12% in the next 90 days when the yearly cliff releases 1.71B ONDO on Jan 18 2027. ONDO has no emissions, no buyback and no burn, so unlocks are the whole story. The key risk is the one large step every Jan 18, with two more of the same size left in 2028 and 2029. The schedule tops out at 10B ONDO; going past that would need the restricted mint function to be used, which has not happened.
MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of ONDO, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 23 2026.
Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/ondo/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.