Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/ldo/inflation
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LDO Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply was shrinking · trend softening
The MrNasDog Pressure Framework reads Lido DAO (LDO) at −0.82% net over the last 90 days and about +5.13% over the next 90. No new LDO was printed and none left the treasury, while the Lido DAO treasury took 6.79M LDO off the market, almost all through its stETH-funded buyback. The next 90 days turn the other way: 48.93M LDO held in ten hack-recovery wallets unlock on Jan 1 2027, against about 6.40M LDO the next buyback round should buy by Nov 24 2026.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Over the 90 days from Jul 20 to Oct 18 2026, LDO’s circulating supply fell by 6.79M LDO, or −0.82% of the 829.57M in circulation. Our supply monitor reads −0.82% for the same 90 days, so the gap is 0.00 percentage points and no data-conflict warning applies. The next 90 days are a different story: one dated unlock of 48.93M LDO on Jan 1 2027, minus a buyback round of about 6.40M LDO, gives about +5.13%. LDO is a fixed-issuance governance token whose float is shrinking through treasury buybacks, with one large unlock about to reverse it.
Sell pressure: where new LDO comes from
Protocol inflation is 0. LDO has no emission and pays no staking rewards: all 1B LDO were created when Lido DAO launched in 2020, and the token’s total supply read exactly 1,000,000,000 LDO at both ends of the window. LDO is an Aragon token whose controller can mint new LDO, but only after a DAO vote, and no such vote has been made. That is a policy, so we watch it rather than call the supply fixed forever.
Vesting unlocks were 0 in the last 90 days but are the whole story of the next 90. The 2020 investor and team vesting ended years ago. The one lock left came from a theft: in Dec 2025 a large early holder lost control of a wallet, and Lido DAO vote #197, executed on Jan 1 2026, took back 48,934,690 LDO and re-issued it to ten new wallets with a one-year lock. The lock is one cliff, with no monthly drip: all 48.93M LDO become movable on Jan 1 2027. Until then none of it can move, and it is left out of the circulating count, so on that day it enters the float in one step. The DAO can still revoke the lock by vote, but none is proposed.
Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. The Lido DAO treasury sent no LDO out in these 90 days; its last payout was on Mar 2 2026. Long-term locks and bankruptcy releases are also 0: no court-run estate holds LDO, and the only long lock is the hack-recovery lock above.
Buy pressure: where new LDO goes
The treasury buyback is the largest buyer. In Apr 2026 Lido DAO approved spending up to 10,000 stETH to buy LDO in rounds of 1,000 stETH, each with a price cap set against ETH, and to keep the LDO in the treasury. In this window it delivered 6.73M LDO: 2.15M on Aug 25 2026 and 4.58M on Sep 25 2026, for 1,000 stETH in total. Round 4 started on Oct 2 2026 with 1,000 stETH and runs to Nov 24 2026 under a higher cap; at today’s LDO price it buys about 6.40M LDO. After it, 6,000 stETH of the budget is left.
The automatic buyback started on Aug 14 2026. It sends half of any staking income above a $40M yearly budget into LDO, capped at $50,000 a day and $10M a year. Its only fill was a 1 stETH order on Aug 13 2026 that bought 6,354 LDO. Lido’s income has stayed below the budget since, so it has bought nothing more, and with ETH near $2,335 it stays off for the next 90 days.
A smaller flow is unpaid rewards taken back. On Jul 31 2026 the contributor reward Safe took back 56,513 LDO from a contributor’s grant and returned it to the treasury. The protocol fee burn is 0, because nothing burns LDO, and the new long-term lock row is 0, because LDO has no staking and no new lock started in the window.
Foundation and overhang
The Lido DAO treasury is the largest holder at 121.50M LDO, up from 114.70M at the start of the window, because every bought-back coin lands there. It is not counted as circulating, so any payout from it would add to the float. We read its balance on-chain every day. The second overhang is the 48.93M LDO hack-recovery lock, read on-chain every day; its unlock date is fixed at Jan 1 2027.
Two smaller pools sit beside them. A contributor reward Safe holds about 4.0M LDO for staff grants; it already counts as circulating. And in Sep 2026 Lido DAO approved a standby loan of up to 7.5M LDO from the treasury to market makers, to keep exchange trading alive if liquidity dries up; it has not been used. If the treasury balance falls between our checks, the outflow enters the foundation row at the next check.
How LDO compares to other DeFi governance tokens
LDO belongs to the group of DeFi governance tokens with a fixed issuance: all coins exist from day one, and supply changes only when locked coins unlock or a treasury buys or pays out. That makes LDO closer to tokens such as UNI or AAVE than to staking-reward chains such as ETH, where validators earn new coins every block. In this group the net number moves with treasury decisions, so a single dated unlock can outweigh months of steady buying.
The buyback design is also different. Many DeFi tokens buy back from protocol fees every day, and some burn what they buy. Lido DAO’s automatic buyback only runs when income clears a fixed budget, and the coins it buys are kept, not burned. That leaves LDO’s buy side dependent on discretionary treasury rounds. Kept coins can be spent again by a later vote, while burned coins are gone for good.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Buyback round 4: 1,000 stETH runs to Nov 24 2026, and the LDO it buys lands in the treasury when the round report is posted.
The hack-recovery unlock: 48.93M LDO become movable on Jan 1 2027, unless a DAO vote changes the lock first.
The 2027 budget vote: holders want the automatic buyback’s trigger tied to a smaller budget, which would let it buy at lower ETH prices.
The market-maker loan: a vote to add the up-to-7.5M LDO loan to the DAO’s fast-track system closed its main phase on Oct 17 2026; any draw would move LDO out of the treasury.
Summary
The MrNasDog Pressure Framework reads Lido DAO (LDO) at −0.82% net for the last 90 days and about +5.13% for the next 90. LDO prints no new coins, and the Lido DAO treasury bought back 6.73M LDO in the window and keeps it. The key risk is the single unlock of 48.93M LDO on Jan 1 2027, more than seven times the next buyback round. After that unlock, no other lock is left: LDO supply then moves only with treasury buying and treasury spending.
MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of LDO, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 18 2026.
Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/ldo/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.