JST Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply shrinking · projected to keep shrinking

This is the long supply read. For the signal, the price drivers and the questions people ask about JUST, see mrnasdog.com/research/jst. JST supply is shrinking. No new JST was created in the last 90 days, while JustLend DAO destroyed 355.02M JST on Jul 17 2026: 248.36M bought back with lending income and 106.66M of old USDJ stability fees. That takes 4.34% of the 8.19B circulating JST off the market, and the next quarterly buyback, due in October 2026, should burn about 154.67M JST more, a further 1.89%. The only limit on the burn is how much income JustLend DAO earns.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days to Oct 15 2026, JST’s net supply change was −4.34%: zero JST on the sell side and 355.02M JST burned on the buy side. Our inflation monitor, which reads the change in circulating supply from Jul 11 to Oct 9 2026, shows −4.16%. The gap is 0.18 percentage points, inside our 0.5-point tolerance, so no warning chip is shown. The small difference is only the base: the monitor divides the same burn by the larger supply of 90 days ago. For the next 90 days we expect −1.89%, from one more buyback round. In one line: JST is a fixed-issue DeFi governance token turned deflationary by a revenue-funded buyback and burn.

Sell pressure: where new JST comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. JST was minted once, 9.9B coins in April 2020, and the JUST token contract on TRON has never minted again. We checked this two ways: the contract’s event log holds one mint ever, and today’s total supply of 9,793,336,268 JST equals 9.9B minus the one supply-cutting burn of Jul 17 2026, to the last decimal. JST pays no staking, block or farming rewards in new coins. The contract owner can still mint, so this row stays on watch rather than marked as final.

Vesting unlocks are 0. Every early JST allocation finished unlocking in May 2023, and nothing remains on a release schedule.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. The circulating count already includes every JST that has not been burned, so a team or DAO wallet selling JST only moves coins between holders. It cannot add new supply.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0. No court estate, trustee or long lock holds JST waiting to be released.

Buy pressure: where new JST goes

The programmatic buyback booked 248.36M JST in the window. Under the proposal JustLend DAO approved on Oct 21 2025, all of its net income, plus any USDD income above $10M, buys JST once a quarter and sends it to a dead address. The Jul 17 2026 round spent $20.6M: $10.28M of second-quarter income and $10.34M from the old reserve. Earlier rounds burned 559.89M JST on Oct 19 2025, 525.00M on Jan 14 2026 and 271.34M on Apr 15 2026. The amount is set in dollars, so the number of JST it buys falls as the price rises: the same $20.6M buys about 154.67M JST at today’s price, and that is what we book for the October 2026 round. The project’s own estimate for that round is $21.55M.

The protocol fee burn booked 106.66M JST. On the same day, JST collected over the years as USDJ stability fees was destroyed with a burn call that cut the token’s total supply. JustLend DAO described it as a one-time addition, so the next 90 days book 0 here.

Foundation buying is 0: no team or treasury wallet bought JST to hold outside the buyback. New long-term locks are also 0, because JST locked for voting or supplied to the lending market still counts as circulating.

Foundation and overhang

We track six large JST balances, all already inside the circulating count. The JustLend DAO burn wallet holds 500.0M JST; it lent 200M out on Aug 16 2026 and got it back on Aug 24 2026, and it is not tied to a published burn plan. The JST voting wrapper holds 700.0M, the JST lending market holds 96.5M, and three large unnamed wallets hold 660.9M, 400.0M and 386.1M. The contract owner’s right to mint is the one real supply risk, and it has not been used since 2020. We re-read these balances, the burn address and total supply at every refresh. If any tracked balance falls between refreshes and the coins leave for a new holder, we record it as a foundation or unscheduled unlock at the next refresh.

How JST compares to other DeFi governance tokens

Most DeFi governance tokens still grow their supply: farming rewards, team vesting and treasury grants keep adding coins faster than any fee buyback can absorb them. JST is in a smaller group with a fixed issue that is already fully unlocked, so every dollar of buyback lowers net supply instead of offsetting new coins. Its sister TRON token SUN also burns from protocol income, which makes the two the clearest buyback-and-burn pair on the TRON network.

The JST buyback differs from tokens that buy back and keep the coins in a treasury. JustLend DAO sends every repurchased JST to a dead address, so the coins cannot come back as future sell pressure. The trade-off is size: the budget depends on lending income, about $10M a quarter in 2026, and the old reserve that roughly doubled each 2026 round is used up after October. Without new reserve money, later rounds would burn about half as much JST at the same price.

What to watch in the next 90 days

First, the fifth JST buyback and burn, expected in October 2026 with no date announced yet; the earlier rounds landed on Oct 19 2025, Jan 14 2026, Apr 15 2026 and Jul 17 2026. Its JST amount depends on the price on the day.

Second, JustLend DAO’s third-quarter report, which should give the real income behind that round and say whether the $119.83M treasury reserve reported in July will fund future buybacks.

Third, the round after October, which on past timing would land around mid-January 2027, just after this window ends on Jan 13 2027, and will be the first without an old-reserve share.

Fourth, the JST owner’s mint right and the 500.0M JST in the burn wallet: a mint or a large move out of that wallet would change this reading.

Summary

JUST (JST) is deflationary: no new JST has been created since 2020, and JustLend DAO’s quarterly buyback and burn plus a one-off fee burn removed 355.02M JST, 4.34% of circulating supply, in the 90 days to Oct 15 2026. We expect about 1.89% more to be burned in the next 90 days. The key risk is the size of future rounds, which shrink as the price rises and as the old reserve runs out, plus an owner mint right that still exists. The ceiling on JST supply is the 9.9B ever minted, and 1.71B of that has now been destroyed.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of JST, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 15 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/jst/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.