Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/hbar/inflation
➜ Start with the Hedera coin page for the short answer (should you buy HBAR?) and its price drivers: mrnasdog.com/research/hbar
HBAR Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply was growing · trend cooling
HBAR supply grew +0.54% over the last 90 days and is expected to grow about +0.15% over the next 90. Hedera mints no new HBAR and burns none: every one of the 50B HBAR was created at launch, and the only supply flow is the Hedera Council releasing coins from its reserve. Between Jul 24 and Oct 22 2026 it released 236.06M HBAR into a circulating supply of 44.03B, against zero on the buy side. Other supply trackers show the same +0.54%.
The verdict, in one paragraph
Over the 90 days to Oct 22 2026, Hedera’s circulating supply rose by a net +0.54%, all of it from Council reserve releases. Other supply trackers read +0.54% for the same window, a gap of 0.01 percentage points, so the two readings agree and no warning chip is shown. For the next 90 days the known schedule adds about 67.54M HBAR, or +0.15%, because the biggest release of the quarter, 150M HBAR for operating reserves, has already happened. HBAR is a fixed-total coin that is still being released: inflationary by reserve release, with no burn to offset it.
Sell pressure: where new HBAR comes from
Protocol inflation on Hedera is 0. The network pays no block reward and has no way to mint HBAR; changing the 50B total would need every Hedera Council member to agree. Staking rewards are real, but they are paid out of a reward account that was filled in advance. That account paid out about 46M HBAR in the window and now holds about 131M HBAR. Those coins were already circulating, so the payouts add nothing new.
Vesting unlocks came to 16.06M HBAR. This is staff and founder pay under Hedera’s 2018 coin plan, which the Council pays at the end of each quarter; the latest payment went out on Sep 30 2026 to more than a dozen wallets. The Council’s own forecast for the current quarter lists 36M HBAR of coin plan pay, which we expect around Dec 31 2026, and about 0.39M HBAR still owed to early buyers under old purchase agreements.
Foundation and unscheduled unlocks were the largest line at 220.00M HBAR. On Oct 1 2026 the Council released 150M HBAR for operating reserves: 100M went to one new wallet that passed it on the next day, and 50M went to a large wallet that holds about 3.45B HBAR and sends coins out often. The Ecosystem Development Program sent 40M HBAR on Aug 15 2026 and 28M HBAR on Oct 15 2026 to the same grant wallet, which has not spent them yet. Monthly Council payouts added about 2.01M HBAR. For the next 90 days we count 31.15M HBAR here: one more ecosystem tranche of about 28M near Dec 15 2026, following the two-month gap between the last two, plus about 3.15M of monthly payouts.
Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0. No court estate, exchange collapse or outside lock holds HBAR that is due to open.
Buy pressure: where new HBAR goes
Every buy line for HBAR is 0. There is no programmatic buyback: no contract or treasury buys HBAR back for the network. There is no protocol fee burn either. Every Hedera fee goes to node operators, to a network fee account, or to the staking and node reward accounts, and all of those can spend the coins again. Fees on some message types went up eight times in 2026, but that raises fee income; it does not destroy HBAR.
A Foundation buy is also 0: the Council and the foundations around Hedera release and grant HBAR; they do not buy it. Spot funds and companies that buy HBAR take coins that already circulate, so their buying removes nothing from the count. A new long-term lock is 0 too. Hedera staking has no lock-up and no slashing; about 12.98B HBAR is staked and can move at any time, so staked coins still count as circulating.
Foundation and overhang
The main overhang is the Hedera Council reserve itself. About 5.97B HBAR still sits in Council reserve accounts on Oct 22 2026, roughly 12% of all HBAR. The largest single reserve account holds about 600M, and seven others hold between 260M and 355M each. The Council publishes its plan one quarter ahead, and for this quarter it forecasts 3.8B HBAR of ecosystem release on top of the 189.15M for operations and staff pay. We do not count the 3.8B: the Council has forecast 3.5B to 3.8B of ecosystem release every quarter since late 2025, and the amounts actually sent were zero, zero, 40M and, so far this quarter, 28M. If the full amount ever moved, HBAR supply would jump by about 8.7% at once.
Three wallets inside the circulating count are worth watching too. The large wallet that received 50M on Oct 1 holds about 3.45B HBAR and has been paying out steadily. The grant wallet that received the two ecosystem tranches holds 68M HBAR. The staking reward account holds about 131M HBAR and falls by about 0.5M a day; if the Council tops it up from the reserve, that top-up is a new release. If the reserve’s balance falls between our checks, the outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks line at the next check.
How HBAR compares to other fixed-supply proof-of-stake chains
HBAR sits in a small group of chains that created their full supply at launch and release it from a treasury over time, rather than minting new coins for validators. XRP is the closest match: a fixed total, a company-held reserve released into the market, and no inflation from consensus. The difference is how the release is run. XRP uses monthly escrow unlocks with a known shape, while Hedera releases are decided quarter by quarter by its Council, published as a forecast, and often come in smaller and later than forecast.
Against uncapped proof-of-stake chains such as Ethereum, Solana or Cardano, HBAR has a hard ceiling: once the reserve is empty, supply stops growing. Those chains pay validators with brand-new coins every epoch, and Ethereum offsets part of that with a fee burn. Hedera does neither. It pays stakers from a pre-funded account, so staking itself adds nothing new, and with no burn its supply can never shrink.
Over the last year HBAR’s released supply grew about 1.62B, close to 3.8%. That is higher than many proof-of-stake chains pay their validators, but it is a reserve draining toward a fixed cap, not a permanent printing rate.
What to watch in the next 90 days
Around Dec 15 2026: the next ecosystem tranche, if the two-month spacing of Aug 15 and Oct 15 holds; we count about 28M HBAR.
Around Dec 31 2026: the quarter-end coin plan payout, forecast at 36M HBAR.
Any day this quarter: whether any of the 3.8B HBAR ecosystem forecast actually moves. That is the single event that would change this reading, by about 8.7% of supply.
Early January 2027: the Council’s next treasury report, with actual figures for this quarter and the first forecast for the first quarter of 2027.
Ongoing: the staking reward account. At about 0.5M HBAR a day it gets close to its reward floor around January 2027; a top-up from the reserve would count as a new release.
Summary
HBAR supply grew +0.54% in the 90 days to Oct 22 2026 and is expected to grow about +0.15% next, because Hedera’s only supply flow is the Hedera Council releasing coins from a fixed 50B total, and the quarter’s largest release has already gone out. Nothing is minted, burned or bought back. The key risk is the Council’s standing 3.8B HBAR ecosystem forecast, which would add about 8.7% if it were ever released in one go. The ceiling is hard: about 5.97B HBAR is left in reserve, and once it is released, supply stops growing.
MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of HBAR, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 22 2026.
Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/hbar/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.