FF Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

➜ Start with the Falcon Finance coin page for the short answer (should you buy FF?) and its price drivers: mrnasdog.com/research/ff FF, the governance token of Falcon Finance, is strongly inflationary on its tradable float even though its total supply is fixed at 10B FF. In the 90 days to Oct 18 2026, 373.06M FF left five project locks and nothing bought or burned FF, so the float grew +11.16%. Three more monthly unlocks of about 203.06M FF each fall in the next 90 days, which puts the forward reading at +18.22%. The cap is real, but 6.66B FF are still locked and paying out every month until 2029.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Our net reading for FF is +11.16% over the last 90 days and +18.22% for the next 90. The monitor reads +12.55% for the same window, a gap of 1.39 percentage points. We walked that gap and it closes: the monitor divides the same released coins by the smaller float of 90 days ago (2.97B FF), while we divide by today’s float (3.34B FF). On the monitor’s base our own flow comes to 12.56%, within rounding of its number, so no warning chip is shown. The label that fits: a fixed-supply DeFi token whose float is inflationary by schedule, with no buyer on the other side.

Sell pressure: where new FF comes from

Protocol inflation is 0. All 10B FF were created in one transaction on Sep 19 2025, and the FF contract on Ethereum has no mint function, no owner and no upgrade path, so no new FF can ever be printed. The 443.67M FF on BNB Chain are a bridge mirror of exactly the same amount locked on Ethereum.

Vesting unlocks added 68.06M FF. The Falcon Finance team and early contributors hold 20% of supply and investors hold 4.5%, both on a 1-year cliff followed by 36 months of monthly vesting. The cliff ended on Sep 29 2026, and on Oct 1 2026 the first payments left the two locks: 55.56M FF on the team side and 12.5M FF to investors. A governance vote that closed on Sep 28 2026 sends every team, investor and airdrop payment from Sep 29 to Dec 29 2026 straight into staked FF for three months before it is handed over. That slows selling, but staked FF still counts as circulating, so it does not change the count. The next 90 days hold three more payments, 204.17M FF.

Foundation and project unlocks are the larger part: 305.0M FF. The ecosystem lock paid 75M FF on Aug 5, Sep 2 and Oct 1 2026, the same amount every month since July. The Foundation lock began monthly payments of 60M FF on Oct 1 2026, which is its remaining 2.16B spread over 36 months. A launch wallet that held the last airdrop coins paid out its final 20M FF on Aug 5 2026 and is now empty. Three ecosystem and three Foundation payments fall in the next 90 days, 405.0M FF in total.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0. No court or estate holds FF. A lawsuit filed in London in October 2026 claims that a custodian sold FF bought in a private deal before its agreed lock-up ended; those coins were already in the market, so the case adds no new supply.

Buy pressure: where new FF goes

The programmatic buyback is 0. Falcon Finance earns from the strategies behind its USDf synthetic dollar, and that income goes to USDf yield and backing, not to buying FF. No buyback wallet or plan has been published, and neither of the two governance votes so far created one.

The protocol fee burn is 0. FF has no burn: total supply read exactly 10B FF at both ends of the window, and the common burn address held the same 0.13 FF from start to end.

The Foundation buy is 0. We found no Foundation or treasury purchase of FF in the 90 days.

The new long-term lock is 0, although staking is busy. Staked FF grew from 139.28M to 206.03M FF over the window, and a 180-day staking option pays a higher yield. Staked FF still counts as circulating, so none of it leaves the float.

Foundation and overhang

Four project locks still hold 6.66B FF, exactly the gap between total and circulating supply. The ecosystem lock holds 2.18B FF and pays 75M a month. The Foundation lock holds 2.1B FF and pays 60M a month. The team lock holds 1.94B FF and pays 55.56M a month, and the investor lock holds 437.5M FF and pays 12.5M a month. At that pace about 203M FF leave the locks every month into 2029. We read all four balances on-chain at every rebuild.

Inside the float, the wallets that receive these payments are large too: the ecosystem payout wallet holds 823M FF, and a launch payout wallet holds 276.19M. They are already counted as circulating, so a sale from them moves coins between holders without adding supply. If any lock’s balance falls faster than its monthly payment between our checks, the extra outflow enters the Foundation and unscheduled unlocks row at the next rebuild.

How FF compares to other DeFi governance tokens

FF belongs to the large group of fixed-supply DeFi governance tokens whose supply growth comes entirely from unlocks, not from minting. In that group the question is never the cap; it is how fast the locked share reaches the market and whether anything takes coins back out. FF scores badly on both: two-thirds of supply is still locked, the release is monthly and steady, and there is no buyback or burn at all.

Tokens that route protocol income into buybacks, such as Hyperliquid’s HYPE, put a constant buyer against their unlocks, which can offset part or all of the new float. FF has no such link between USDf revenue and the token. Its closest analogues are other young DeFi tokens on 36-month linear schedules after a 1-year cliff, where the first year after the cliff is usually the heaviest stretch of float growth.

Compared with proof-of-stake chains that print new coins to pay validators, FF’s inflation is temporary by design: once the last lock empties in 2029, supply can no longer grow. Until then, a single month of FF unlocks, about 6% of the float, is as large as a typical chain’s whole year of staking issuance.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Oct 29 2026: the next monthly unlock, about 203.06M FF from the ecosystem, Foundation, team and investor locks, with payment usually 1 to 7 days later.

Nov 29 2026 and Dec 29 2026: the next two tranches of the same size, which bring the next-90-day total to 609.17M FF.

Dec 29 2026: the first hand-over of the insider coins that the September vote staked for three months. From then the holders can unstake and sell, so watch exchange inflows.

Any new Falcon Finance governance vote on a buyback, a burn or a change to the unlock pace. None exists today; one would be the first buy-side force for FF.

Summary

FF has a hard cap of 10B and no way to mint more, yet its circulating float grew +11.16% in 90 days and is projected to grow +18.22% in the next 90, because about 203M FF leave Falcon Finance’s project locks every month. Nothing buys back or burns FF, so every unlock is new float with no offset. The main risk is the steady overhang of 6.66B FF still locked, paid out monthly into 2029; the ceiling is that total supply can never pass 10B.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of FF, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 18 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/ff/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.