FET Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

➜ Start with the ASI Alliance coin page for the short answer (should you buy FET?) and its price drivers: mrnasdog.com/research/fet

FET, the token of the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (Fetch.ai), is strongly inflationary: in the 90 days to Oct 19 2026 about 432.5M FET reached the market against 0 burned or bought back, a net +18.71% of the 2.31B circulating FET, with +18.74% projected for the next 90 days. Almost all of it is the team’s own release: 283.2M FET newly created on Fetch.ai’s own chain and 138.5M FET from team wallets on Ethereum, plus 10.82M FET of staking rewards. The Ethereum token’s supply stays at 2.71B, but that number is no longer a ceiling on how much FET exists.

The verdict, in one paragraph

FET’s net supply change over the last 90 days is +18.71%, and the next 90 days are projected at +18.74%. The monitor reads +3.18%, a gap of 15.54 percentage points, so the page carries a warning chip. The supply figure the monitor reads counts FET on Ethereum only and has not moved since Sep 4 2026, so it catches neither the October releases nor anything that happens on Fetch.ai’s own chain. In one line: FET is inflationary by team release, not by its staking rewards.

Sell pressure: where new FET comes from

Staking rewards added 10.82M FET. Fetch.ai’s own chain creates new FET every block to pay stakers, set at 3% a year of the FET on that chain. Blocks arrive slower than planned (about 5.7 seconds instead of 5), so the real pace is closer to 2.6% a year. Because the FET on that chain jumped this window, the next 90 days should add about 11.44M FET.

No vesting unlocks hit the market. One unlock tracker shows small monthly AGIX migration lines of about 2.5M FET on the 28th, but those coins are already counted as circulating and no locked wallet released anything on Jul 28, Aug 28 or Sep 28 2026.

Team wallets on Ethereum released 138.5M FET. Four team wallets on Ethereum sit outside the circulating count: the token bridge, the admin multisig, an old staking contract and the Foundation wallet. Together they fell from 473.96M to 335.45M FET. The bridge paid 125M FET to one exchange deposit address in bursts on Aug 19–20, Sep 2–3, Oct 1–2 and Oct 9 2026, and the admin multisig sent 23.4M FET to another wallet on Oct 18 2026. These releases have come every two to four weeks since August, so we expect about the same in the next 90 days.

The largest line is new FET created on Fetch.ai’s own chain: 283.2M FET reached the market. In May 2026 the bridge on that chain gained the power to create FET. Its admin then created 292M new FET in five batches (60M on Jul 25, 62M on Aug 5, 70M on Aug 14, 40M on Aug 28 and 60M on Sep 18 2026) with no Ethereum FET burned to match, and sent 398.6M FET to exchange deposit accounts between Jul 26 and Oct 15 2026. Two more batches (50M on Jun 19 and 60M on Jul 3) came before this window. Nothing comes from a bankruptcy estate or a long lock: there is none, and the 8.72M FET stolen from a SingularityNET conversion contract on Sep 19 2026 were coins already counted as circulating.

Buy pressure: where new FET goes

Nothing takes FET out. There is no buyback, and nothing in the window shows the team buying FET. Nothing is burned either: the Ethereum supply read exactly 2,714,384,546.672 FET at both ends of the window, the dead address did not move, and the supply on Fetch.ai’s own chain only rose, so 0 FET was burned. A 2025 governance vote to burn 110M FET left over from the Ocean migration was rejected. Staking locks about 606M FET on Fetch.ai’s chain, but those coins sit outside the circulating count, so staking takes 0 out of it; staking only feeds the rewards above.

Foundation and overhang

The team still controls a large pool that can reach the market without notice. On Ethereum the admin multisig holds 225.8M FET, the old staking contract 80.6M, the Foundation wallet 26.7M and the bridge 2.33M. On Fetch.ai’s own chain the bridge admin holds 16.8M FET liquid and 57.5M staked, and it can create more: the bridge contract may hold up to 350M at a time. None of these has a published release schedule. If any of these balances falls, those coins reach the market as new supply.

How FET compares to other AI network tokens

Most AI network tokens have one clear supply number. A token with a fixed, fully minted supply and an expired vesting schedule can only grow through team wallets, and a token with a published emission curve grows at a known rate. FET has both a capped Ethereum token and an uncapped native chain, and the native side now carries a mint button held by the bridge admin. That makes FET’s real supply depend on team decisions rather than on code, which is the opposite of a hard-capped design.

Compared with proof-of-stake chains that pay validators from inflation, FET’s staking reward is mild: about 2.6% a year on the native chain, at the low end for proof-of-stake chains. The difference this window is the team release, which is about 40 times the staking reward. Tokens with fee burns or buybacks can offset new supply; FET has neither, so every released coin stays in the market.

What to watch in the next 90 days

First, any new mint by the native bridge admin. The last one was on Sep 18 2026; a new batch would add directly to new supply.

Second, the admin multisig on Ethereum (225.8M FET). It refilled the bridge with 20M on Oct 2 and Oct 9 2026 and sent 23.4M out on Oct 18 2026; more transfers out would keep the release running.

Third, the AGIX conversion pause. AGIX-to-FET conversions were halted after the Sep 19 2026 exploit; a restart moves coins inside the circulating count and adds no new supply, but watch for any refill of conversion contracts from team wallets.

Fourth, any public statement from the team explaining the native mints or retiring an equal amount of Ethereum FET, which would change the picture.

Summary

FET supply grew about 18.71% in the 90 days to Oct 19 2026 and is projected to grow about 18.74% in the next 90. Staking rewards are small at 10.82M FET; the real driver is the team, which released 421.7M FET in the window, most of it newly created on Fetch.ai’s own chain and sent to exchange accounts. Nothing is burned or bought back, and the team still holds more than 400M FET across both chains. The 2.71B Ethereum supply is no longer a ceiling, so the key risk is more new FET from the same bridge.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of FET, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 19 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/fet/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.