CFX Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady

This is the long supply read. For the signal, the price drivers and the questions people ask about Conflux, see mrnasdog.com/research/cfx. CFX grows slowly and steadily. Conflux paid 23.10M new CFX to miners and stakers in the 90 days to Oct 20 2026, while its fee and storage burns destroyed only 12,684 CFX, so supply rose about +0.44% on a float of 5,248.7M CFX, and we expect about the same over the next 90 days. Every launch lock has ended, there is no buyback, and Conflux has no supply cap: the pace is set by a holder vote, not by a fixed schedule.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the last 90 days, net new CFX equalled +0.44% of the circulating supply. The market supply monitor we follow reads +0.70% for the same 90 days, a gap of 0.26 percentage points, which is small enough that no warning chip is shown on the coin page. The next 90 days should look the same, about +0.44%, because no vote result can take effect before then and nothing is scheduled to unlock. Conflux is a quiet, slowly inflating chain: two mints run on every block, and the burns are too small to matter.

Sell pressure: where new CFX comes from

Protocol inflation is the only source of new CFX, and it came to 23,101,598 CFX in the window, about 257,000 CFX a day. It has two parts. Proof-of-work miners receive 0.40 CFX per block, a reward that holders voted to halve from 0.8 CFX in a round that took effect on Apr 7 2026; with about two blocks a second that paid roughly 6.25M CFX in 90 days. Proof-of-stake stakers earn interest on a base rate of 3.26% a year, also set by holder vote, which the protocol scales up when a smaller share of supply is staked; that paid about 16.86M CFX. Staking grew from 887.8M to 909.0M CFX in the window, which is why each 30-day slice paid a little more than the one before (7.63M, 7.72M, then 7.76M CFX).

Vesting unlocks are zero. The 2-year and 4-year launch lock pools that held the original team and investor coins both read empty on-chain, and the last of those launch unlocks finished in 2024. Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are also zero for this ledger. Conflux’s four fund contracts from launch did pay out about 49.2M CFX in three rounds (Aug 14, Sep 16 and Oct 18 2026), but those coins were already counted as circulating, so a payout moves CFX from one holder to another and adds no new supply. Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is zero: there is no estate, trustee or long lock releasing CFX.

Buy pressure: where new CFX goes

The protocol fee burn is the only active buy-side force, and it is tiny: 12,684 CFX in 90 days. Two parts make it up. A share of every base fee is destroyed while the rest goes to miners, which removed 2,313 CFX; storage deposits that are turned into storage points are destroyed too, which removed 10,371 CFX. The storage burn comes in bursts (half of it landed on Oct 12 and Oct 15 2026), so we carry the 90-day total forward. Together the burns undo about 0.05% of the new coins.

There is no programmatic buyback. Conflux’s last large burn sent 76M CFX from its ecosystem fund to a dead address on May 7 2025, well before this window, and no new burn or buyback has been set since. There is no Foundation buy: in this window the fund contracts only paid out. New long-term locks also count as zero. Staking is a real lock, and it grew by about 21M CFX, but staked CFX still counts as circulating, so a bigger stake removes nothing from the float. It only raises the interest paid on the sell side.

Foundation and overhang

The overhang we watch is the four Conflux fund contracts created at launch. Between them they hold about 2,307M CFX, roughly 44% of the circulating supply: about 1,348M, 552M, 303M and 105M CFX. They pay out on a rough monthly rhythm into one project wallet, which then stakes with pools and funds partner programmes. A separate contract holds about 665M CFX and did not move in the window; it has no public label, so we list it for scope only. We read all five balances on-chain at every rebuild.

Because these coins already count as circulating, a payout or a sale from them does not change our supply number. The risk is a different one: these funds are large enough to add real selling pressure in the market if they are sold rather than staked or used in the ecosystem. If any of these balances falls sharply between refreshes, we will look at where the coins went and report the outflow at the next refresh.

How CFX compares to other uncapped proof-of-stake and proof-of-work chains

Conflux is unusual because it runs proof-of-work and proof-of-stake together on one chain, and pays both. Most large chains pick one. Proof-of-work coins with a hard cap, such as Bitcoin or Kaspa, cut their block reward on a fixed timetable and stop at a known maximum. CFX has no cap, and its block reward changes only when holders vote, as they did when they halved it in 2026. That makes CFX supply flexible: it can shrink its inflation faster than a halving coin, but it can also raise it if a vote goes the other way.

Against uncapped staking chains such as Ethereum, Polkadot or Cosmos, CFX at about +0.44% per 90 days sits in the middle: higher than Ethereum, whose fee burn cancels part of its issuance, and lower than chains that pay 7% or more a year to stakers. The big difference from Ethereum is the burn. Ethereum destroys a meaningful share of its fees; Conflux destroys about 0.05% of what it creates, so almost all new CFX reaches the market.

Like many older layer-1 chains, Conflux has no buyback and no revenue-funded burn. Coins that pay holders through a buyback, such as exchange tokens, can offset their new supply; CFX cannot, so its supply only grows unless holders vote the rates down again.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Vote round 25. Holders can vote the block reward, the staking rate and the burn shares up, down or unchanged. Round 24 voted all of them unchanged. Round 25 has no votes yet and should close in early December 2026; a result usually takes effect about two months later, so any change would land in early 2027.

Fund payouts. The fund contracts paid out on Aug 14, Sep 16 and Oct 18 2026. If the rhythm holds, the next round comes around mid-November 2026. A payout much larger than the recent 1M–27M CFX rounds, or one sent straight to exchanges, would be worth noting.

Staking size. Staking reached about 909M CFX. Because the stakers’ payout grows with the total stake, a jump in staking would raise new supply a little, even with the vote rate unchanged.

A new burn. Conflux burned 76M CFX once, in May 2025. A second burn from the ecosystem fund would be the one event that could move CFX toward flat supply; none is set today.

Summary

CFX supply rose about +0.44% in the 90 days to Oct 20 2026, as Conflux paid 23.10M new CFX to miners and stakers and burned only 12,684 CFX, and we expect the same pace for the next 90 days. Every launch lock has ended, and the big fund contracts already count as circulating, so new supply comes only from block rewards and staking interest. The main risk is the roughly 2,307M CFX in project funds that pay out each month and could be sold into the market. There is no supply cap: the ceiling is whatever holders vote for the block reward and staking rate.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of CFX, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 20 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/cfx/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.