CFG Inflation Analysis · September 2026 · Supply growing, projected to keep growing

CFG, the token of the Centrifuge tokenization platform, is growing in the market on two lines at once. A permissionless Centrifuge contract mints about 3% a year into the Centrifuge treasury — 3.17M CFG this window, in one mint on Aug 3 2026 — and the project’s own wallets released a further 33.61M CFG they already held, 16.88M of it to Grove’s strategic stake. Nothing is bought back or burned. That is 36.78M CFG added against zero removed, so the MrNasDog Pressure Framework reads CFG at +9.67% net over the last 90 days and +7.06% over the next 90, against a supply-monitor reading of −0.07% — a gap the monitor cannot close, because its circulating figure has not moved since June. CFG has no supply cap.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending Sep 18 2026, the Pressure Framework reads CFG at +9.67% net: the sell side added 36.78M CFG to a circulating supply of 380.38M, and the buy side removed nothing. The independent supply monitor reads the same 90 days at −0.07%. The gap is 9.74 percentage points, far past the framework’s half-point tolerance, so CFG ships with a data-conflict flag. The deep walk found why: the monitor’s circulating figure has held near 380.38M every day since a one-day restatement on Jun 9 2026, while the Centrifuge project wallets paid out coins week after week — a flat figure cannot register a release. The primary on-chain reading is kept. The forward column reads +7.06%: the contract schedule adds about 5.12M CFG, and the release line is held at the lowest of the last four quarters rather than the latest one. The label for CFG is inflationary by treasury release: an uncapped token whose mint is modest and whose real supply pressure is the project spending coins it already holds.

Sell pressure: where new CFG comes from

Sell #1, protocol inflation, is 3.17M CFG. The CFG token sits on Ethereum, and a separate Centrifuge InflationMinter contract is allowed to mint it. The rule is written into that contract: every seven days, supply may grow by a fixed step that compounds to 2.998% a year, and the new CFG goes to the Centrifuge treasury. Anyone can trigger the mint, so it lands in lumps: the only mint this window, on Aug 3 2026, paid out exactly eight weeks at once. Total CFG supply moved from 697.16M to 700.33M across the window by exactly that amount. The minted CFG counts as sell pressure because the Centrifuge treasury passed it straight on — the treasury paid out more than it received in this window and in each of the four windows before it. On the same rule the next 90 days add about 5.12M CFG, and seven weeks were already owed on Sep 18 2026. The same CFG contract address also exists on Base, Arbitrum, BNB Chain, Avalanche and Plume, but holds zero supply on each, so there is one CFG supply to count.

Sell #2, vesting unlocks, is zero as a separate line. Centrifuge lists team vesting to May 2030 and a locked incentive pool vesting into its own treasury to April 2029, but no CFG vesting lock can be read on-chain; every coin the project pays out leaves through its own wallets, and Sell #3 measures that flow, so booking the calendar as well would count the same CFG twice. Sell #3, foundation and unscheduled releases, is the biggest line on the CFG page at 33.61M CFG. Three project wallets — the Centrifuge foundation wallet, the Centrifuge treasury and an incentives wallet — sent a net 36.78M CFG to outside holders, and every wallet’s balance change matched its transfers to the last unit. The newly minted 3.17M is already Sell #1, so Sell #3 is the 33.61M drawn from CFG the project already held. The largest leg was 16.88M CFG to Grove on Aug 4 and Aug 5 2026, a partner that announced a strategic stake in the Centrifuge ecosystem on Aug 25 2026. The rest went to trading firms on loan, to grants and to payments, with 10.64M CFG across Sep 1 to Sep 3 2026 alone. Sell #4, long-term locked or bankruptcy supply, is zero: there is no estate, and the swap from the old CFG token closed for good on Apr 10 2026.

Buy pressure: where new CFG goes

Nowhere — every CFG buy row is zero. Buy #1, programmatic buyback, is zero: in its answers on the CP172 proposal on Aug 26 2026, Centrifuge said it will not buy CFG back and will spend its money on growth. Buy #2, protocol fee burn, is zero, and it was checked both ways rather than assumed: the dead addresses hold no CFG at either end of the window, and total CFG supply rose rather than fell, so no CFG was destroyed. Buy #3, foundation buying, is zero — the only CFG that came back into Centrifuge wallets from outside was a small 62.5K return on Jun 22 2026, already netted inside the release line. Buy #4, new long-term locks, is zero: nothing new was locked with a stated size, and Grove’s CFG stake carries no published lock-up, so it is not counted as locked.

Foundation and overhang

The Centrifuge overhang is large and readable on-chain. The Centrifuge foundation wallet holds 116.07M CFG — about 31% of circulating supply — and it funds the treasury in round blocks: 27M CFG moved across four transfers between Aug 4 and Sep 3 2026. The Centrifuge treasury, where the mint lands, is nearly empty at 1.39M CFG, which is why it keeps drawing on the foundation wallet. An incentives wallet holds 0.15M CFG. All three are re-read from the chain on every refresh. Grove’s 33.75M CFG is no longer a project balance and is tracked as an outside holder. If any of these Centrifuge balances falls between refreshes and the CFG does not land at a burn address, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How CFG compares to other RWA tokens

RWA tokens split into two supply designs. A fixed-supply token issues nothing new, and its float grows only as vesting cliffs open, on dates anyone can read in advance. CFG is the other design: an uncapped token with a coded mint, so supply grows every week whether or not anyone acts, and a large project reserve that is spent at the team’s discretion rather than on a published calendar. For CFG the mint is the smaller line — about 0.73% of total supply per quarter — and the discretionary release is the bigger one, around 22M to 34M CFG a quarter over the last year.

Against chains whose emission pays validators, the CFG mint sits differently: it goes to a project treasury, and whether it reaches the market depends on how that treasury spends. It has reached the market in every recent quarter. And unlike exchange tokens or fee-burning chains, CFG has nothing pulling supply back down — no buyback, no burn, no buy side at all — so every CFG the mint and the reserves release stays in the float.

What to watch in the next 90 days

First, CP172, the token-to-equity plan that passed its Snapshot vote on Sep 10 2026 with 73.29M CFG for and 0.99M against: one CFG would buy one share in a restructured Centrifuge company. No conversion window date is set yet. Centrifuge says the 3% CFG inflation stops once conversion is complete, and that a burn of the CFG handed in is being considered — if that burn is confirmed with a size and date, it becomes the first CFG buy row. Second, the release line: the forward column holds 21.72M CFG, the lowest quarter of the last year; a pace like this window’s would push the net well above +7.06%. Third, the mint backlog — seven weeks were owed on Sep 18 2026, so one trigger could add a lump of several million CFG at once. Fourth, the 116.07M CFG foundation wallet, which has already sent 27M to the treasury since Aug 4 2026.

Summary

The MrNasDog Pressure Framework reads CFG at +9.67% net over the trailing 90 days and +7.06% over the next 90, with zero on every buy row. The structural mechanism is a coded Centrifuge mint of about 3% a year into a treasury that spends everything it receives, plus a 116.07M CFG foundation reserve that feeds that treasury. The key risk is that the reserve spend is discretionary and unscheduled, so the largest line on the page can jump in any quarter — it ranged from about 22M to 34M CFG a quarter over the last year. CFG has no supply cap; the one planned change to that is CP172, where the mint stops only after an equity conversion that has no date yet.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of CFG, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated Sep 18 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/cfg/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.