Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/bsv/inflation by MrNasDog.

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BSV Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Mixed flows · supply roughly steady

Bitcoin SV (BSV) is mildly inflationary, and only through mining. Between Jul 20 and Oct 18 2026 miners were paid 40,356 BSV in block subsidy, and no burn, buyback or lock took any BSV away, so supply grew +0.20% in 90 days, with the same +0.20% expected for the next 90. Our supply monitor reads +0.18%. BSV is capped at 21M coins, and 20.10M are already mined.

The verdict, in one paragraph

BSV’s net supply change over the last 90 days is +0.20%, and the projection for the next 90 days is also +0.20%. The monitor, which measures the same 90 days from market data, reads +0.18%, so the gap is 0.02 percentage points, well inside the 0.5-point line, and no warning chip is shown. All of the change is the Bitcoin SV block subsidy: nothing vests, nothing is burned and nothing is bought back. BSV is a quiet proof-of-work chain on a fixed halving schedule, with mining as its single source of new coins.

Sell pressure: where new BSV comes from

Protocol inflation is the only live sell row: 40,356 BSV in 90 days. Every Bitcoin SV block pays the miner who finds it 3.125 BSV of new coins, plus the fees in that block. From Jul 20 to Oct 18 2026 the BSV chain added 12,914 blocks, about 143 a day, which is a little slower than the 144 a day the 10-minute target would give. Because the subsidy is paid per block, the slower pace means slightly fewer new BSV than the round number. The last 30 days ran at the same pace, so the next 90 days are projected at the same 40,356 BSV.

The BSV subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks. The last halving, to 3.125 BSV, came at block 840,000 in April 2024. The next halving, to 1.5625 BSV a block, comes at block 1,050,000, about 78,000 blocks after today, which at the current pace is around April 2028. No halving falls inside the next 90 days.

Vesting unlocks are 0. BSV was created when it split from Bitcoin Cash in November 2018, and the split copied every existing balance one for one. There was no token sale, no team allocation and no investor round, so there is no vesting schedule and no unlock cliff to wait for.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks are 0. The BSV Association, the Swiss non-profit that maintains the node software, publishes no BSV treasury, and no team wallet is known. Of all mined BSV, only about 69 BSV sit outside the circulating count, so no wallet of any size is holding coins back from the market in a way that could add new supply.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is 0. The Mt. Gox estate received BSV at the 2018 split, and a 2020 report put its holding near 202,000 BSV, to be sold for cash rather than paid out. A court in Tianjin, China, also accepted a request on Sep 28 2026, announced Oct 13 2026, to confiscate assets from a large fraud case, and BSV is on its list. These coins were mined long ago and are already counted as circulating, so if they are sold they change hands but do not add to supply.

Buy pressure: where new BSV goes

Programmatic buyback is 0. Bitcoin SV has no protocol treasury and no revenue that could buy coins back; every transaction fee goes to the miner of the block.

Protocol fee burn is 0. BSV has no fee burn of the EIP-1559 kind. We read the three best-known burn addresses on the BSV chain in full: together they received only 0.0056 BSV in the 90 days, and they hold about 2,206 BSV from all past years combined. That is far too small to count against 40,356 new BSV.

Foundation buy is 0: no foundation, company or treasury program buys BSV for its own reserves. New long-term lock is 0: BSV has no staking and no lock contract. The network can freeze specific coins only when a court order is sent through its alert system, and no freeze was carried out in this window.

Foundation and overhang

BSV has no team-controlled supply to watch. The one large holder we track is the Mt. Gox estate, whose BSV balance is not published: a 2020 report put it near 202,000 BSV, and the estate’s repayment deadline is Oct 31 2026. We re-check it on the web every two weeks. The confiscated assets in the Tianjin case are a second watch item, also unpublished in size. Both sit inside the circulating count, so a sale from either would be a transfer between holders, not new supply. If either balance ever moved out of a pool that the circulating count leaves out, that outflow would enter the foundation-and-unscheduled-unlocks row at the next refresh.

How BSV compares to other proof-of-work chains

BSV shares its supply design with Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH): a 21M cap, a 3.125 coin block subsidy since the April 2024 halvings, and a halving every 210,000 blocks. All three print about 0.2% new coins a quarter at today’s pace, and none of them burns fees or buys coins back, so the supply side of all three is close to the same. What separates them is block timing: each chain’s pace sets when its next halving lands, and BSV currently runs a little slower than its 10-minute target.

Against tail-emission chains such as Dogecoin or Monero, which keep paying a fixed reward forever, BSV is stricter: its subsidy keeps halving until it reaches zero, and about 95.7% of all BSV that will ever exist is already mined. Against smart-contract chains that burn part of every fee, BSV gives miners the whole fee, so busier use of the Bitcoin SV chain does not shrink supply.

One feature is unusual among proof-of-work coins: the BSV network can freeze or reassign coins named in a court order through its alert system. That does not create or destroy BSV, so it does not change the supply count, but it means some coins can be held back from trading by law rather than by choice.

What to watch in the next 90 days

The Mt. Gox repayment deadline on Oct 31 2026: any news on how the estate sells its BSV, or another delay. These coins are already counted, so the supply number would not move.

The Tianjin forfeiture case announced on Oct 13 2026: whether the court publishes how much BSV is involved, and whether those coins are later sold.

The BSV block pace: the next 90 days are projected at about 143 blocks a day; a faster or slower chain changes the subsidy paid, block for block.

Node software releases from the BSV Association and the Teranode rollout: no planned release changes the 3.125 BSV subsidy, and any proposal that did would show up here first.

Summary

Bitcoin SV adds about 0.20% to its supply every 90 days, all of it from the 3.125 BSV block subsidy paid to miners, with no vesting, no burn and no buyback on the other side. Our monitor agrees at +0.18%. The main risk is not new coins but old ones: large estate and court-held balances that are already counted could still be sold. Supply is capped at 21M BSV, and the next halving, around April 2028, will cut new coins in half.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of BSV, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 18 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/bsv/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.