Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/bitcoin-cycle-method by MrNasDog.
The MrNasDog Bitcoin Framework reads Bitcoin’s four-year cycle from one number per half-year: the median price of each six months (H1 = Jan–Jun, H2 = Jul–Dec). Eight half-years make one cycle (Cycle 1 = 2012–2015, Cycle 2 = 2016–2019, Cycle 3 = 2020–2023, Cycle 4 = 2024–2027). Below are the three findings, each stated in plain language and proven with the exact numbers — no chart required.
Finding 1 — Bitcoin always moves through the same four price-phases, in order
A “phase” is defined by what the price does. The order is always Quiet → Pump → Drop → Recover.
Quiet — price barely rises (near-flat): Cycle 1 went $85 → $95 → $113 → $127 (four halves, +49% over two years); Cycle 4 went $63,636 → $65,670 (+3%, almost flat).
Pump — price multiplies to the cycle high (pump base → peak): Cycle 1 $127 → $594 = 4.7×; Cycle 2 $1,194 → $8,660 = 7.3×; Cycle 3 $11,679 → $48,203 = 4.1×; Cycle 4 $65,670 → $110,920 = 1.7×.
Drop — price falls from the peak to the cycle low: Cycle 1 −60% ($594 → $239); Cycle 2 −52% ($8,660 → $4,138); Cycle 3 −59% ($48,203 → $19,557); Cycle 4 −34% so far ($110,920 → $73,054).
Recover — price climbs off the low: Cycle 1 +17% ($239 → $279); Cycle 2 +124% ($4,138 → $9,276); Cycle 3 +53% ($19,557 → $29,874).
Finding 2 — the cycle compresses: flat time shrinks, rising time grows
Two sides of the same coin. The flat Quiet phase takes fewer half-years each cycle, and by the same amount the rising time (Pump + Recover) grows.
- Flat (Quiet) time: 2 → 1.5 → 1 → 1 years (Cycle 1 → 4).
- Rising (Pump + Recover) time: 1 → 1.5 → 2 → ~2.5 years (Cycle 1 → 4, the last with the forward read).
As the sideways phase contracts, the up-move stretches longer — so a cycle’s recovery has more room and time to run.
Finding 3 — the floor rule: each cycle’s low stays above where its Pump began
The lowest half-year of the Drop has never fallen below the last Quiet price (the pump base). Bottoms keep rising, which lets the framework name a floor in advance.
| Cycle | Pump base | Drop low | Held above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $127 | $239 | 1.9× |
| 2 | $1,194 | $4,138 | 3.5× |
| 3 | $11,679 | $19,557 | 1.7× |
| 4 | $65,670 | $73,054 | 1.1× (so far) |
Live read — June 2026
By Finding 3, Cycle 4’s Drop should not close a half-year below its pump base of $65,670 (2024 H2). The 2026 H1 median is $73,054 — above the floor, so the rule holds. Bitcoin’s daily price dipped under $66,000 in June 2026, but the framework reads the half-year median, not the daily price. By Finding 2 (a compressed cycle), the forward read is a Recover phase: 2026 H2 ≈$81,694, 2027 H1 ≈$84,786, 2027 H2 ≈$87,996.
Appendix — every half-year median
- Cycle 1 (2012–2015): 2012 H1 ≈$85, 2012 H2 ≈$95, 2013 H1 $113, 2013 H2 $127, 2014 H1 $594, 2014 H2 $397, 2015 H1 $239, 2015 H2 $279.
- Cycle 2 (2016–2019): 2016 H1 $432, 2016 H2 $655, 2017 H1 $1,194, 2017 H2 $4,591, 2018 H1 $8,660, 2018 H2 $6,401, 2019 H1 $4,138, 2019 H2 $9,276.
- Cycle 3 (2020–2023): 2020 H1 $8,869, 2020 H2 $11,679, 2021 H1 $47,048, 2021 H2 $48,203, 2022 H1 $39,106, 2022 H2 $19,557, 2023 H1 $26,720, 2023 H2 $29,874.
- Cycle 4 (2024–2027): 2024 H1 $63,636, 2024 H2 $65,670, 2025 H1 $96,606, 2025 H2 $110,920, 2026 H1 $73,054, 2026 H2 ≈$81,694 (predicted), 2027 H1 ≈$84,786 (predicted), 2027 H2 ≈$87,996 (predicted).
The MrNasDog Bitcoin Framework, built from MrNasDog’s own daily Bitcoin price record since 2013. A personal research method, not financial advice. 2012 figures are approximate; 2026 H2 onward are forward reads.
Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/bitcoin-cycle-method · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.