Originally published at https://mrnasdog.com/research/avax/inflation

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AVAX Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

AVAX supply is growing. In the 90 days to Oct 22 2026, Avalanche staking rewards created 2.52M AVAX and a quarterly Avalanche Foundation tranche unlocked 1.67M AVAX, while the fee burn destroyed 79.5K AVAX. Net, circulating AVAX rose about +0.93%, and we expect about +0.97% in the next 90 days. The hard cap of 720M AVAX slows the staking mint as supply rises, but it is still far away.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the 90 days from Jul 24 to Oct 22 2026, new AVAX reaching the market came to 4.19M AVAX and the burn took back 79,471 AVAX, so net supply grew +0.93% of the 443.91M AVAX in circulation. For the next 90 days we project +0.97%: slightly lower staking pay, one more Foundation tranche on Nov 8 2026, and a similar burn. Other trackers show +2.90% for the same 90 days, a gap of 1.97 points. That gap comes from a one-day recount of their supply figure on Sep 12 2026, which caught up with coins released months before this window, so a warning note sits on the number. AVAX is inflationary by design on the active float: staking and a scheduled Foundation unlock add about fifty times what the burn removes.

Sell pressure: where new AVAX comes from

Staking rewards are the largest source. Avalanche pays every validator and delegator in newly minted AVAX for the full length of their stake, and in the window the Avalanche supply counter rose by 2.52M AVAX, about 28,000 a day. Today 216.46M AVAX is staked with 609 Primary Network validators and about 40,000 delegations, roughly 49% of all AVAX in circulation. The Helicon upgrade went live on Sep 22 2026 and began lowering the minimum staking reward from 10% to 7.5% a year in a straight line over 90 days, finishing around late December 2026. Stakes keep the rate they started with, so the cut reaches the market slowly; with today’s stake we expect about 2.72M AVAX of staking rewards in the next 90 days.

The second source is the Avalanche Foundation’s vesting. Its allocation was locked into the chain at launch and unlocks 1.67M AVAX every quarter. One tranche opened on Aug 10 2026, inside the window, and the next opens on Nov 8 2026. After that, 15 more tranches remain until July 2030, with 26.67M AVAX still locked today. Every other launch allocation, such as the team, the strategic partners and the public sale, finished unlocking by 2024.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks add 0. The Foundation holds 2.74M unlocked AVAX on its launch addresses, all staked, and it bought 2.08M AVAX on Sep 23 2026, but these coins already count as circulating, so even a sale would not add new supply. Long-term locked or bankruptcy supply is also 0: no court estate or seized pile of AVAX is waiting to be released.

Buy pressure: where new AVAX goes

Avalanche has no programmatic buyback, so that row is 0. The only built-in removal is the fee burn: every transaction fee on Avalanche is destroyed. The C-Chain burned 77,220 AVAX in the 90 days, and the small monthly fees paid by validators of Avalanche L1s burned about 2,250 AVAX more, for 79,471 AVAX in total. Fee spending rose sharply in late September, when validators set a minimum gas price of 5 nAVAX. On Oct 19 2026 they halved it to 2.5 nAVAX, and at that floor the burn runs about 79K AVAX per 90 days, which is our projection. That is under 2% of the new coins.

The Foundation buy row is 0. On Sep 23 2026 the Avalanche Foundation paid $15M for 2.08M AVAX from a listed AVAX treasury company, but those coins already circulated, so the trade removes nothing from the count. New long-term locks add 0 as well: staked AVAX, including the coins held and staked by the US spot AVAX funds, still counts as circulating.

Foundation and overhang

The biggest overhang is the Avalanche Foundation’s locked allocation: 26.67M AVAX in launch locks that open at 1.67M AVAX per quarter, next on Nov 8 2026. We read these locks on-chain at every rebuild. Second, the Foundation’s unlocked coins on the same addresses, 2.74M AVAX, all staked and without a sale schedule; we also read them on-chain. Third, the Foundation’s other wallets, including the 2.08M AVAX bought on Sep 23 2026; the Foundation does not publish them, so we follow its announcements and the filings of the companies it trades with, about every two weeks. Listed treasury companies and spot funds are market holders, not the team, and there is no DAO treasury or bankruptcy estate. If any of these Foundation balances falls between our checks, the outflow will show up as Foundation selling at the next rebuild.

How AVAX compares to other proof-of-stake Layer 1 chains

Most large proof-of-stake chains pay validators with new coins, and AVAX does too. The difference is the cap. Ethereum has no maximum supply and burns only the base fee, so its supply can grow forever if usage is low. Avalanche has a hard cap of 720M AVAX, and each new reward is scaled by how much of that cap is still unminted. With about 476M AVAX created so far, the staking mint shrinks a little every year, and the Helicon reward cut speeds that up.

Avalanche also burns every fee, not just part of it, which is the same idea behind Ethereum’s burn. But today the AVAX burn covers under 2% of new coins, so the cap and the reward cut matter far more than fees. A chain like Solana lowers its yearly inflation on a fixed schedule; Avalanche lowers it through the shrinking unminted pool and through community votes on staking rules, which makes governance the lever to watch.

AVAX also still carries a scheduled vesting unlock, which most chains launched in 2020 have finished. The Foundation tranche is small, about 0.38% of circulating supply a quarter, but it repeats until July 2030.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Nov 8 2026: the next Foundation tranche unlocks 1.67M AVAX, the only dated supply event in the window.

Around Dec 21 2026: the Helicon reward cut reaches its new floor of 7.5% a year, and every new stake from then on earns less new AVAX.

The C-Chain gas floor: validators raised it to 5 nAVAX in late September and cut it to 2.5 nAVAX on Oct 19 2026. Another change would move the burn up or down.

The Foundation’s validator pay research: in late August 2026 its economists proposed paying validators from network income instead of new coins. It has no proposal number or date yet; if it becomes a vote, the staking mint could shrink sharply.

The tracker recount: the one-day jump of Sep 12 2026 leaves other trackers’ 90-day figure until about Dec 11 2026.

Summary

AVAX supply grew +0.93% in the 90 days to Oct 22 2026 and is projected to grow about +0.97% in the next 90 days. Staking rewards of about 2.5M to 2.7M AVAX per quarter and a 1.67M AVAX Foundation tranche every quarter drive the growth, and the fee burn of about 79K AVAX takes back under 2% of it. The key risk is that the Foundation’s 26.67M locked AVAX keeps unlocking until July 2030, while the ceiling is the 720M AVAX hard cap, and the Helicon reward cut slowly lowers the mint.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of AVAX, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 22 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/avax/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.