ALGO Inflation Analysis · October 2026 · Supply growing · projected to keep growing

The Algorand coin page has the score, the price drivers and every question answered — mrnasdog.com/research/algo. Below: supply, line by line.

ALGO supply is growing, even though Algorand never mints a new coin. All 10B ALGO were created at launch, and coins reach the market only when they leave Algorand Foundation wallets. In the 90 days to Oct 15 2026, 103.03M ALGO reached the market — 84.28M from Foundation wallets and 18.75M paid to stakers from a Foundation-funded reward pot — while only 114.1K ALGO of fees left it. Net, supply grew +1.13% and we project about +0.66% for the next 90 days. The ceiling is the Foundation reserve itself: about 927.9M ALGO still sits outside the market.

The verdict, in one paragraph

Over the last 90 days the Algorand supply that counts as circulating rose by a net +1.13%, from about 8.97B to 9.07B ALGO. Our inflation monitor reads +1.18% over its own 90-day window, a gap of only 0.05 percentage points, well inside our 0.5-point tolerance, so no warning chip is needed. We checked the number a second way too: rebuilding circulating supply from every Foundation wallet flow matches the Foundation’s own published supply figure on six dates between Aug 15 and Oct 15 2026 to within 0.04M ALGO. For the next 90 days we expect +0.66%, lower only because two large one-off payments are not repeated. ALGO is a fixed-supply coin with a steady Foundation release: no minting, no burn, and a reserve that keeps flowing out.

Sell pressure: where new ALGO comes from

Protocol inflation: 18.75M ALGO. Algorand pays block producers a bonus, about 8.2 ALGO per block today, plus half of each block’s fees. The money does not come from minting; it comes from the fee sink, a wallet the Foundation refills — it added 9.0M ALGO in August and 10.0M ALGO in September 2026. Over the window the sink paid about 19.38M ALGO, and the 18.75M that went to stakers outside the Foundation is new supply for the market. The bonus shrinks by 1% every million blocks, so the next 90 days should pay about 18.22M ALGO.

Vesting unlocks: 0. The early-backer and team vesting of Algorand finished in 2024, and unlock trackers show nothing left on a schedule.

Foundation and unscheduled unlocks: 84.28M ALGO. This is the largest source of new ALGO. The Foundation sent 29.12M ALGO to its selling desk, most of it in tranches between Jul 17 and Aug 24 2026 and only small lots since. It made two large single payments to outside wallets: 30.0M ALGO on Jul 17 2026 and 12.63M ALGO on Sep 22 2026. The last 12.53M ALGO went out as grants, xGov community awards and running costs in many smaller transfers. For the next 90 days we count only the steady part, about 41.65M ALGO, because the two single payments have no schedule to repeat.

Long-term locked or bankruptcy: 0. No bankruptcy estate, court trustee or long lock holds ALGO; everything outside the market is Foundation-held and counted above.

Buy pressure: where new ALGO goes

Programmatic buyback: 0. Algorand has no buyback, and no ALGO flowed back into Foundation wallets from the market in the window.

Protocol fee burn: 0. Algorand does not burn fees. Every fee goes to the fee sink, which sits outside the circulating count, so we book it as a separate line: 114.1K ALGO in 90 days, about 1,270 a day. Half of those fees come straight back out as part of the block producer payouts.

Foundation buy: 0. The Foundation sells and spends ALGO; nothing shows it buying.

New long-term lock: 0. About 2.02B ALGO is staked, but Algorand staking has no lock-up and staked coins still count as circulating. Staking takes nothing out of the float.

The buy side is about 900 times smaller than the sell side, so the Algorand supply story is almost entirely about how fast the Foundation releases its reserve.

Foundation and overhang

The Algorand Foundation publishes its wallet addresses, and those wallets are exactly what separates 10B ALGO from the circulating count. On Oct 15 2026 they held 927.9M ALGO: about 876.66M in active treasury wallets (some of it staked — the Foundation runs about 19.4% of all stake), 29.53M in an older wallet that did not move this window, 18.07M in the fee sink that pays the staking bonus, and 3.64M in its two selling wallets. None of this has a published release schedule. Its quarterly reports describe selling a capped amount each day that stops on a 10% one-day price drop or below a set price, plus grants, xGov awards and staking rewards. We read these wallet balances from the chain at every rebuild; if any of them falls between checks, the outflow enters the Foundation row at the next refresh.

How ALGO compares to other fixed-supply proof-of-stake chains

ALGO belongs to the group of proof-of-stake chains that created their whole supply on day one, like XRP, XLM and HBAR. In all of them, “inflation” means coins leaving an issuer’s reserve, not new coins being printed. XRP releases coins from on-chain escrow on a monthly rhythm, and Hedera moves coins out of its treasury in planned steps. Algorand has no escrow contract and no calendar: its reserve sits in ordinary Foundation wallets, so the pace depends on the Foundation’s spending and selling decisions each quarter.

The contrast with minting chains is just as clear. Ethereum and Solana create new coins for validators every epoch, and Ethereum also burns part of every fee. Algorand pays its stakers from an existing pot instead, and burns nothing. That means Algorand’s supply growth has a hard ceiling of about 927.9M more ALGO — once the reserve is gone, growth stops — while minting chains have no such end point.

Per 90 days, Algorand’s +1.13% is on the high side for a large Layer 1: most of it is the Foundation reserve reaching the market, not rewards. The staking bonus itself is small and falling, about 10% a year by design.

What to watch in the next 90 days

The Q3 2026 transparency report, expected around the end of October 2026, should show how much ALGO the Foundation sold and spent from July to September and whether its selling rules changed.

The selling desk. Large tranches stopped after Aug 24 2026 and only small lots followed; a return to the July–August pace would push the next-90-day figure above our +0.66%.

The new leadership. CEO William Herkelrath started on Aug 31 2026, and the CTO and the Chief Strategy and Marketing Officer said they were leaving on about Oct 9 and Oct 14 2026. Any change to spending or selling would show up in the Foundation wallets first.

Bonus steps. The block bonus drops 1% at about Nov 16 2026 and again at about Dec 18 2026, and the fee sink (18.07M ALGO, about 90 days of payouts) needs another Foundation refill to keep paying.

Summary

Algorand’s ALGO is a fixed 10B-coin supply with no minting and no burn, yet circulating supply grew +1.13% in 90 days because 84.28M ALGO left Algorand Foundation wallets and 18.75M ALGO was paid to stakers from a Foundation-funded pot. We project about +0.66% for the next 90 days. The key risk is the pace of Foundation selling and one-off payments, which no schedule fixes; the ceiling is the roughly 927.9M ALGO the Foundation still holds.

MrNasDog Pressure Framework analysis of ALGO, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Checked Oct 15 2026.

Original: https://mrnasdog.com/research/algo/inflation · Data + explanation only. Not financial advice.